Lowes Line
Posted
9/3/10

 



 
Vanderbilt Preview and Prediction

 

By Charlie Simon


Matchup: The Northwestern Wildcats (0-0,0-0) at the Vanderbilt Commodores (0-0,0-0)
Date: Saturday, September 4, 6:30PM CDT
Television: ESPN3 (the Tres, really?) [also Comcast Sports Net and CLTV]
Line: NU minus 3.5


Outlook:

Welcome to the 2010 edition of the Lowes Line.  The Northwestern Wildcats open the season visiting the Vanderbilt Commodores in Nashville, Tennessee.  Many in the Nashville Media have dubbed this the “brain bowl” as NU and Vandy are very similar in academic standing and as the only private universities in their respective conferences (Big 10ish and SEC).  The similarities end when you look at what NU has accomplished on the field in the past 15 years (7 bowls appearances to 1 for Vandy) and especially the last two years where NU has gone 9-4 and 8-5 while Vandy has gone 7-6 and 2-10.  I dare say I think NU has turned the corner and become a respectable football program.  Experts are predicting 8-4 for the ‘Cats this year, and some are even calling them the sleeper pick of the Big Ten.  If NU can go 7-5 or better it will be a successful year and the first time in NU history where the ‘Cats have gone to a bowl game 3 years in a row

<>The question becomes can NU win the games they are supposed to win.  They should be favored in 7 games this year (4 non-conf and Minn, Indiana, and Illinois).  They always pull off an upset so 8-4 is reasonable, but only if they win the games they should win.  This is one of those games they SHOULD win.   Last year NU stumbled at Syracuse and almost lost to Eastern Michigan.  Hopefully they can avoid these lapses this year. 

Vanderbilt comes into this season in a little bit of turmoil as their head coach Bobby Johnson (a Steve Martin look-a-like) abruptly resigned in the middle of the Summer.  The timing was such that there was not time to find a new head coach so the Asst. Head Coach was promoted.  He seems like a very nice guy but he personality reminds you more of Hee-Haw than football.  Vandy will use a spread offense similar to NU’s but Vandy has not been able to consistently move the ball.  Many designed passes turn into the quarterback scrambling for his life.  Very reminiscent of NU in the early ‘90s.  Vandy does return the SEC Freshman of the Year in Warren Norman.  Norman ran for over 700 yards last year but just had arthroscopic surgery on his knee 10 days ago so his durability for this game is a question mark.   Vandy usually has a decent defense with good linebackers but their typical performance is to hang tough for the first half and then wear out in the second half.

All the focus on NU has been on new QB Dan Persa.  Persa, a Junior, played in several games last year and should be ready to lead the ‘Cats this year.  Persa is described as more of a running threat than Kafka which I’m hoping is not a polite way of saying “he hasn’t gotten this throwing thing figured out yet…”  Be prepared for a slow start but eventually NU should get the passing game going.  NU will use running back by committee with Fields, Concannon, and Schmidt.  Their improvement  will be directly proportional to the improvement of the NU O line.  With most of the line returning and a renewed commitment to aggressively running the ball, NU should not have to, and in general should not revert to the Outback Bowl model of throwing 78 passes in one game.

NU’s defense should be stout enough up front with 2 returning starting linemen and all 3 returning linebackers.  The concern will be in the secondary where only one starter, CB Jordin Mabin returns.  NU will miss shutdown CB McMannis, and safeties Smith and Phillips.  Luckily, Vandy is not the kind of team that can exploit NU’s new secondary (that time will come later in the season).

The Lowes Line is looking very forward to see how the NU kicking game performs this year.  NU finally has a dedicated punter (even if he is a walk-on).  Demos will concentrate exclusively on kickoffs and field goals.  He should show the small improvement needed to make him a very reliable kicker.

Prediction:

The game should start slow as both teams try to get their spread offenses working.  Expect numerous trading of punts.  The defense will probably score for both teams and look for Vandy to run a kickoff back for a TD, as they did 3 times last year.  Eventually NU should wear Vandy down and put the game away by the middle of the 4th quarter.

Northwestern 27, Vanderbilt 19

Take the ‘Cats minus the points, they will cover.

 

The Lowes Line is an e-mailed description of NU's next football game, with an invariably fearless prediction of the outcome and how NU will fare against what the other "experts" predict.  Our good friend and Brother Marcus Lowes began the broadcast mailing in 1996.  The crack Lowes Line Staff (alumni Jersey Cat, GallopingGrapes, Eric Cockerill, Joel Kanvik, Charlie Simon, and MO'Cats) have continued the Line in memory of Marcus.  For the 2010 season it has returned to HailToPurple.com, for anyone to enjoy.  Thanks to the gridiron brain trust at the Lowes Line!